How low should we alert? Quantifying intensity threshold alerting strategies for earthquake early warning in the United States
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Abstract
We use a suite of historical earthquakes to quantitatively determine earthquake early warning (EEW) alert threshold strategies for a range of shaking intensity targets for EEW in the U.S. West Coast. The current method for calculating alert regions for the ShakeAlert EEW System does not take into account variabilities and uncertainties in shaking distribution. As a result, if the modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) level used to determine the extent of the alert region (the alert threshold) is the same as the target intensity threshold, the alert region will be too small to include all locations that require alerts even if earthquake source parameters are estimated accurately. Missed alerts can be reduced by using a lower alert threshold than the target threshold. This expands the alert region, increasing the number of precautionary alerts issued to people who experience shaking below the target level. We determine alert thresholds that optimize this tradeoff between missed and precautionary alerts for target thresholds of MMI 4.0-6.0 using a ShakeMap catalog of 143 M5.0-7.3 earthquakes as ground truth. We examine the quality of each alerting strategy relative to the target MMI, where we define alert quality metrics in terms of both the area and population alerted. Optimal alert thresholds maximize correct alerts while limiting most precautionary alerts to regions that are likely to still feel some shaking. We find these optimal alert thresholds also maximize warning times. This analysis presents a quantitative framework ShakeAlert can use to communicate alerting strategies and performance expectations to ShakeAlert users.
Publication type | Article |
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Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Title | How low should we alert? Quantifying intensity threshold alerting strategies for earthquake early warning in the United States |
Series title | Earth's Future |
DOI | 10.1029/2021EF002515 |
Volume | 10 |
Issue | 3 |
Publication Date | March 11, 2022 |
Year Published | 2022 |
Language | English |
Publisher | American Geophysical Union |
Contributing office(s) | Earthquake Science Center |
Description | e2021EF002515, 20 p. |
Country | United States |